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Prediction for CME (2022-02-06T14:09:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2022-02-06T14:09Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/19097/-1
CME Note: This is a partial halo CME as seen in the west of STEREO A COR2 and is seen in the far south of SOHO LASCO C2/C3. The source is an eruption beginning around 2022-02-06T12:04Z near AR 12939 characterized by a filament eruption best seen seen in SDO AIA 304, dimming and an EUV wave in SDO AIA 193, and opening field lines in SDO AIA 171. The L1 shock arrival of the combined front of this CME and 2022-02-06T15:38 CME is around 2022-02-09T20:09Z and the flux rope part possibly starts around mid-day on 2022-02-10.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2022-02-09T20:09Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 5.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-02-09T11:07Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: SARM
Prediction Method Note:

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2022-02-06 19:52
 - Time at C2: 2022-02-06 14:09
 - Radial speed: 555.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 40 deg
 - Eruption location: S18E05
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - In-situ shock speed: 572.50 km/s
   - Shock arrival time: 2022-02-09 11:07 (i.e. predicted transit time: 68.97 hours)
KP: [3.0 - 5.0]

Lead Time: 71.65 hour(s)
Difference: 9.03 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Marlon Nunez (UMA) on 2022-02-06T20:30Z

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